If we all got a collective carectomy and started walking and riding our bikes—beginning today—would there be hope for the planet? A paper recently published in Geophysical Research Letters says it might be the only way. Co-authors H. Damon Matthews and Ken Caldeira conclude that a change to zero emissions may be the only hope to stop climate change—and our carbon footprint—in its tracks.
From the paper’s abstract:
Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human-induced climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.
The results of the paper “…suggest that if emissions were eliminated entirely, radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 would decrease at a rate closely matched by declining ocean heat uptake, with the result that while future warming commitment may be negligible, atmospheric temperatures may not decrease appreciably for at least 500 years.”
The paper further concludes that “…a stable global climate is not synonymous with stable radiative forcing, but rather requires decreasing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. We have shown here that stable global temperatures within the next several centuries can be achieved if CO2 emissions are reduced to nearly zero. This means that avoiding future human-induced climate warming may require policies that seek not only to decrease CO2 emissions, but to eliminate them entirely.”
Where climate change is concerned, we’re creators of our own fate. But, for most, achieving a zero emissions lifestyle seems too difficult a feat. Others can’t be “inconvenienced” by taking transit or walking, or doing one less load of laundry. (Ironic that our creature comforts, like cars, washing machines, air conditioners, manufacturing, and most appliances are the things that are doing us in. We won’t be so comfortable when we’re wiping sweat from our brows in mid-January, or huddling by the burning embers of our stainless steel refrigerators for warmth.) Laziness, it seems, might have us cooked sooner than we’d like to imagine.
Photos via flickr by Denis Colette & massdistraction
Related posts:
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
I’ve seen several spots on New Belgium – including their 1-year anniversary bike bonus to employees – but I’ve never seen any of them (including one the owners, who cycle to the office in some swanky duds) shown wearing HELMETS, even amidst auto traffic … hmmmmmmm :’(
As a former bike commuter in FC, I can assure you that the trains stop the cyclists just as much as the car drivers. If New Belgium wanted to have a significant effect on people in the area they would do well to push for the commuter rail to Denver (which would be trivial given the number of freight lines through the town) and thus cut the number of drivers on the I25.